數字革命重構全球金融體系
導語
價值的數字化代表著下一場數字革命，這場革命將釋放前所未有的可替代性和流動性，給數字金融和商業模式創新帶來根本性的顛覆👨🏼🚀。
拉至底部，閱讀英文原文
在全球繼續抗擊新冠肺炎大流行的時候👱🏻，創新在維持商業發展、尋找長期解決方案的進程中發揮了引領作用。當我們逐漸從這場危機中復蘇👨👧👦，這些解決方案將刺激經濟增長。隨著線上工作以前所未有的規模展開，Zoom、微信🚗🥅、淘寶等在線服務提供商維持著全球團結一致、相對常態化的氛圍🧙♀️。與此同時🧒🏽，我們正在探索新一代數字解決方案👨🏻🍳，以幫助應對公共衛生危機的經濟影響😅🎼，這標誌著世界經濟和金融體系發展邁入一個變革性的新階段。
DCEP試點：撬動經濟復蘇的杠桿
2020年3月24日🕊，中國人民銀行宣布已完成央行數字貨幣和電子支付平臺（DCEP）基本功能的開發🚴♂️，相關法律已在起草👩🏿🏭。已經公布的測試地點為深圳、成都🏧、蘇州和雄安新區🧑🏼✈️🪙，初步計劃似乎是圍繞諸如交通等政府消費支出展開🚶。
與支付寶和其他依賴基礎設施的系統不同，采取匿名製的DCEP系統允許數字錢包在沒有聯網銀行賬戶甚至沒有互聯網連接的情況下運行👩🏻🔧，從而實現真正的類現金使用體驗🧑🔧。如此一來，消費者和供應商都能以一種全新的⏺、非中介的方式進行商業活動，並享有一個由主權背書的主權交易單位的監管、可靠性和高效性🙅🏻♂️。這一切對資金轉移、國際貿易和結算以及人民幣持續國際化的潛在影響🦍，再強調也不為過。
然而，在新冠肺炎疫情危機期間，數字技術的影響力可能更大🎵。當美國舉步維艱地開展“薪酬保護計劃”（PPP），最需要資金的小企業只能獲得有限的資金，而像洛杉磯湖人隊這樣的大企業卻獲得了數百萬美元的資金。數字貨幣將允許政府追蹤補助的分配和使用。此外，由於大量的應用程序以非分布式的方式處理，導致處理過程和信息並不透明💇♀️🙎♂️，部署也很薄弱（第一批3500億美元的應用程序在有效部署了約30%的資金後就停止了運行），“薪酬保護計劃”已經不堪重負⌚️🔈。而一個基於區塊鏈的系統能夠真正確認需求，近乎即時執行部署👶🏼，並保證投入的資金能夠解決上述許多問題。
也許更重要的是，有資金需求的公民依然在疫情危機中苦苦掙紮、急需解圍。智能合約技術和國家數字貨幣系統確保了直接面向用戶的資金刺激，消除了傳統金融系統逐層滲透產生的損失💁🏽。專家預測，最終的經濟復蘇很可能以波浪式遞進🍰，行進軌跡有起有落而不是V形，因此經過多輪此類註資後👩🦲，數字貨幣系統的效率將呈現幾何式增長。隨著疫情在世界不同地區以疾病擴散和傳染的形式出現🙎🏻♂️🟧，全球經濟緊密相連，經濟復蘇既受國內環境影響👼🏻，也受國際環境影響🧑🏽🏭，因而可能需要多個階段的經濟刺激🙂↔️。在過去20年，全球市場產生了186萬億美元的現金供應，卻只創造了46萬億美元的持續GDP。顯然🧵，盲目地向經濟註入大量資金並不是解決之道。我們必須把目標對準最需要資本的地方，確保最脆弱群體至關重要的消費。
價值的數字化：數字經濟迎來後浪
最初的互聯網革命使信息數字化成為可能🌈，使準入門檻平民化🐇，使每個人都能通過網絡獲得信息🩴。價值的數字化代表著下一場數字革命🏋🏼♀️，這場革命將從根本上改變世界經濟，由此催生的機會遠不止傳統貨幣和在線支付的新數字形態🧚🏿♂️。從房地產、藝術品到大宗商品等任何有價值的東西中創造數字資產的能力💁🏿♀️👨🏼🚀，將釋放前所未有的可替代性和流動性。這也將給數字金融和商業模式創新帶來根本性的顛覆🙌🏿，使整個金融生態系統能夠有效地創建定製的激勵結構，以優化其自身的數字經濟💁🏽♀️。
2019年8月，全球首批受監管的數字資產銀行Seba銀行和Sygnum均獲得瑞士金融市場監管局（FINMA）頒發的首批銀行和證券交易商牌照🕺🎁。同年10月，Sygnum還在新加坡獲得了資本市場服務許可證，允許它提供數字資產管理服務🫧。由於全球監管的明確性🕵🏼♂️，從紐約到新加坡，完全受監管的數字資產證券的新形式👇🏽，即證券化通證發行（STOs）正在全球各地湧現。盡管瑞士和新加坡在受監管的數字資產領域率先占據領導地位💂🏻，但下一個值得關註的將是中國🖇。
2019年10月15日，中國發布了區塊鏈服務網絡（BSN），這是一個跨公共網絡、跨區域、跨機構的國家區塊鏈服務基礎設施平臺。該平臺由提供頂層規劃的國家信息牽頭，由中國銀聯和中國移動聯合區塊鏈技術及其現有網絡資源自主開發部署🏊🏻♂️🐖。BSN於2020年4月15日完成了內部測試，計劃在中國大陸建成大規模互通網絡的核心基礎設施技術📢，涵蓋城市、政府📩🥤、公司和個人。該網絡還將成為數字絲綢之路的骨幹，為中國遍布全球的所有貿易夥伴提供互聯互通。BSN將是一種全新的互聯網協議，使數據、價值和數字資產以一種完全透明和可信的方式🦯，在任何想成為網絡節點的個體之間以一種更有效的方式共享數據。
REITs對比房地產通證🥔：求同存異
房地產是世界上最大的資產類別，全球估計總資產價值超過250萬億美元，超過股票和債券的總和。然而🙆☝🏽，據估計每年只有不到3%的投資優質房地產被交易，相比之下價值股和債券的交易量分別接近100%和60%🧍。房地產投資市場的流動性不足🩶👨🏻🌾，主要是由於這些資產的資金需求大、投資周期長。房地產投資信托基金（REITs）於20世紀60年代創立👮，旨在為房地產市場提供流動性，本質上是房地產資產的共同基金。目前，REITs的全球市值約為7萬億美元，以某些指標衡量，過去30年REITs的市場表現幾乎優於所有其他資產類別🧑🏿🦳。
中國已經涉足私人交易的“準房地產投資信托基金”（“準REITs”）🏨，並尋求在不久的將來參與REITs領域的競爭🎛🧑🏿🍳。這些證券的價值同樣來自房地產🔴，但它們是支付利息的債務工具⏺，而不是支付股息的股權REITs，後者是全球REITs的共同結構。2020年4月30日，中國宣布為REITs創建一個公開市場的計劃🖐🏼。根據國家發改委和證監會聯合發布的《關於推進基礎設施領域不動產投資信托基金（REITs）試點相關工作的通知》💫，將“按照市場化、法治化原則，充分依托資本市場💸，積極支持符合國家政策導向的重點區域、重點行業的優質基礎設施項目開展REITs試點”🤽🏿♂️。
然而🤰，房地產投資信托基金並非沒有缺點。首先💚，由於本質上類似於積極管理型基金，它們會產生交易成本和費用🔈。這些成本和費用的產生既為公司創利，也覆蓋了管理💅🏿、營銷和其他費用的開支。同理💯，這些投資組合的規格可能非常嚴苛，有幾個級別和等級的資產，使得外行投資者難以理解㊙️🤷🏼♂️。其次，大多數REITs還承擔著重要的杠桿作用💁，通常占總資產的三分之一至一半不等。如今房地產證券型通證發行（real estate STOs）已開發出針對上述問題的解決方案💂♀️💁🏿，極大地降低了成本並提高了交易效率🧑🧒🧒，同時提升了安全性、準確性、透明度、監控和可跟蹤性💌。房地產證券型通證既可以像債務一樣支付利息👩⚕️🧂，也可以具有股權屬性，將價值與基礎資產聯系起來🕺🏼。
長久以來，凯捷体育娱乐泛海凯捷金融科技研究與美國公司Securitize聯手合作☝️，為代幣發行者提供成功發行數字證券的解決方案。在與發行者的訪談中，我們發現證券型通證發行（STOs）通過智能合同為企業提供治理方案👹，可以從一個接入點吸引多個投資者，為遍及14個司法管轄區的數十甚至數百位投資者提供服務🕵🏿♂️。它們的系統支持全透明的跨境交易，發行的代幣可以在全球任何時間進行交易，不受傳統交易所營業時間的限製🧑🏽🦱。
STOs通常以單一資產為基礎🎞，完全透明🔺，幾乎沒有管理費或交易費🏛，而且沒有杠桿🥛。與之相反，REITs提供資產管理服務和多樣化。我們並不認為房地產STOs一定會替代REITs，同時也不難想象👆，最終類似REITs的投資組合也可能持有房地產代幣。從短期來看💁🏻♂️，這兩種市場都存在🦹🏽♂️。
區塊鏈服務網絡服務中國政務
政府部門為加強自身治理能力、提升治理效能，紛紛采用區塊鏈技術，形成了政務區塊鏈。長期以來🎁🪗，我國政府一直致力於擺脫“信息孤島”、突破數據壁壘🧎♂️、提高為民辦事的效率🦹🏻♂️。而區塊鏈技術的可追溯🐡🧛🏼♀️、不可篡改、數據加密等特性可以解決當前的一些痛點。
2017年是中國政務區塊鏈應用元年。到2019年☪️，新增項目從2017年的2項增長至23項。目前，已有多個省和城市引入了政務區塊鏈應用，比如北京🤒🏚、上海🏘、天津等。深圳更率先推出了區塊鏈發票和央行區塊鏈交易平臺。然而從具體數量上來看，中國政務區塊鏈的應用仍然較少，主要集中在北京和廣東省，兩者總和超過全國總數的三分之一🙇🏿♂️。目前較為成熟的政務區塊鏈應用主要有：司法存證、電子發票和黃金交易平臺🔓。而近期，備受期待的央行數字貨幣推出👄。
中國區塊鏈服務網絡（BSN）於2020年4月在全球啟動🦸🏽♂️，是中國首個全球基礎設施網絡。中國國家信息副主任張學穎指出🦹🏽♂️，區塊鏈服務網絡將為我國智慧社會建設和數字經濟發展提供高質量🌷、定製化的技術服務平臺支撐和可信、可靠、可擴展的基礎設施服務載體。經國家疾控的部署，它已經在新冠肺炎疫情的防控中發揮積極作用。
The Digital Revolution Reshapes the Global Financial System
Charles Chang
Deputy Dean of Academics, Professor of Finance and Director of the Fintech Research Center at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University
Michael Sung
Associate Professor of Practice in Finance at Fanhai International School of Finance and the co-director of the Fintech Research Center at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University
Richard Wang
Visiting Scholar at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University
Chaoying Qi
Post-doctor of the Fintech Research Center at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University
While the world continues to fight the global COVID-19 Pandemic, innovation has led the way in maintaining commerce and finding long-term solutions that will fuel economic growth once we emerge from this crisis. Work is being conducted online in unprecedented numbers and online service providers like Zoom, WeChat, Taobao, and others have led the way in helping the world maintain a sense of togetherness and relative normalcy. Meanwhile, next generation digital solutions are being explored that will help us to combat the economic repercussions of the health crisis and that represent a transformative stage in the development of world economies and financial systems.
DCEP Testing and Economic Recovery
On March 24, the People’s Bank of China announced that it had completed the development of the basic functions of the central bank’s digital currency electronic payment (DCEP) and is drafting laws for its implementation. Test sites have been announced in Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou, and the Xiong'an New District with early plans seeming to surround government-run consumption such as transportation.
Unlike Alipay and other infrastructure-dependent systems, the pseudonymous system DCEP allows for digital wallets to function in the absence of linked bank accounts and even Internet connections, allowing for a truly cash-like experience. This will empower consumers and vendors alike to conduct commerce in a whole new, un-intermediated way, while enjoying the regulation, reliability, and efficiency of a digital sovereign-banked unit of trade. The potential impact on money transfer, international commerce and settlement, and the continued internationalization of the RMB cannot be over-stated.
However, during the COVID Crisis, the impact of this technology may be still larger. As the US struggles with its Payroll Protection Program (PPP), small businesses that need the money the most have limited access while large corporations like the Los Angeles Lakers have received millions in funding. A digital currency would allow governments to track both the distribution and use of subsidies. Furthermore, the PPP has been overrun by a massive number of applications being processed in a non-distributed way where both process and information remain largely opaque and deployment has been weak (with the first 350 billion halted after only about 30% of its capital was effectively deployed). A Blockchain-based system of true validation of need, nearly immediate deployment, and assurances as to use of capital would resolve many of these issues.
Perhaps more importantly, citizens in need likewise continue to struggle. Smart contract technology along with a national digital currency system ensure direct-to-user stimulus, eliminating losses incurred while trickling through traditional financial systems. Such a system would be exponentially more effective in the face of multiple such infusions, as experts predict that the eventually economic recovery is likely to come in waves, with ups and downs, rather than in a V-shape. The disease has already shown itself to have progressed in waves of disease expansion and contagion in different regions of the world, and as the global economy is clearly linked, economic recovery will be impacted by both the domestic and international environment. Multiple stages of economic stimulus may be required. Over the last 20 years, the world has generated 186 trillion dollars in cash supply that has generated only 46 trillion in sustained GDP. Clearly, blindly flooding the economy with cash is not the answer. We must aim to target capital where it is most needed and ensure critical consumption for the most vulnerable.
Digitization of Value
The original Internet revolution allowed for the digitization of information, democratizing its access for everyone in the world by making it available online. The digitization of value represents the next digital revolution that is on the cusp of fundamentally transforming the world’s economies. The opportunity is much larger than just new digital forms of traditional currencies and online payment options. The ability to create a digital asset out of anything of value, from real estate to works of fine art to commodities, will provide unprecedented fungibility and liquidity. This will enable radically disruptive digital financing and business model innovation that can allow ecosystems to effectively create customized incentive structures to optimize their own digital economy.
In August 2019, the world's first regulated digital asset banks Seba and Sygnum both received the first banking and securities dealers’ licenses from Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Later in October that year, Sygnum also received a capital markets services license in Singapore, allowing it to provide digital asset management services. As a result of the regulatory clarity around the world, new forms of fully regulated asset-backed digital asset securities, known as securitized token offerings (STOs), are popping up globally, from NYC to Singapore. While both Switzerland and Singapore take the initial lead in the world of regulated digital assets, the country to watch will be China.
On October 15, 2019, China announced the Blockchain Service Network (BSN), which is a cross-public network, cross-regional, and cross-institutional national Blockchain service infrastructure platform. This platform is spearheaded by the National Information Center which provides top-level planning and is independently developed and deployed by China UnionPay and China Mobile, combining Blockchain technology and with their existing network resources. BSN completed internal testing on April 15th and will be the backbone infrastructure technology for massive interconnectivity throughout Chinese mainland, from city governments, to companies and individuals alike. The network will also form the backbone to the Digital Silk Road to provide interconnectivity to all of China's trade partners around the globe. The BSN will be a new Internet protocol to allow a more efficient way to share data, value, and digital assets in a completely transparent and trusted way between anyone who wants to be a node on the network.
REITS vs Real Estate Tokens
Real estate is the world’s largest asset class with a total estimated asset value of over US$250 trillion globally, larger than stocks and bonds combined. However, it is estimated that less than 3% of investment quality real estate is traded each year, compared with nearly 100% of the value stocks and 60% of bonds. This illiquidity in the real estate investment market is attributed to the large capital requirement and long investment period associated with these assets. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) were developed in the 1960s to provide liquidity to this market and are essentially mutual funds for real estate assets. The current global market cap for REITs is around US$7 trillion, and by some measures, REITs have outperformed almost every other asset class over the past 30 years.
China is looking to join this fray in the near future, having already dabbled in privately-traded “Quasi REITs.” These securities likewise derive their value from real estate but are debt-instruments that pay interest, rather than equity REITs that pay a dividend, the common structure for REITS globally. On April 30, China announced plans to create a public market for REITS. According to a statement jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the “Notice Concerning Work in Relation to Advancing Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trust Trials,” CSRC and NDRC will “make full use of capital markets to actively support the undertaking of REIT trials for high-quality infrastructure in key areas and industries in accordance with the principles of the market and rule of law.”
REITs, though, are not without their shortcomings. First, because of they are essentially structured like actively managed funds, they generate transactions costs and fees that arise both for the profit of the firm and to cover the overhead of managing, marketing, and other expenses. Likewise, these portfolios can be draconian and have several levels and grades of assets that may be difficult for lay investors to understand. Most REITS also take on significant leverage, often ranging from a third to a half of total assets. Real estate STOs have developed to generate solutions to some of these concerns, greatly reducing costs and increasing transaction efficiency, all while improving security, accuracy, transparency, monitoring, and traceability. Real estate STOs may be either debt-like in paying interest or have equity qualities linking value to the underlying assets.
The Fintech Research Center has been working with Securitize, a US-based company that provides solutions for token issuers to successfully offer their digital securities. In interviews conducted with issuers, we find that STOs provide governance solutions through smart contracts, engage multiple investors from one access point, and can serve dozens if not hundreds of investors in 14 jurisdictions. Their system supports fully transparent cross-border transactions, and tokens can be traded at any time around the world without the limitations of operating hours of a traditional exchange.
STOs are often written on single-assets and are fully transparent, have virtually no management or trading fees, and are unlevered. REITs, in contrast, provide asset management services and diversification. We don’t view real estate STOs necessarily as a substitute for REITs, and it’s not hard to imagine eventual REIT-like portfolios that might also hold real estate tokens. In the short-term there certainly appears to be a market for both.
Administrative Affairs Blockchain and Blockchain Service Network (BSN) in China
In order to strengthen their governance capabilities and improve governance efficiency, government departments are adopting Blockchain technology, forming an administrative affairs Blockchain. For a long time, the Chinese government has aimed to move away from "information islands," to break through data barriers, and to improve the efficiency of civil affairs. With traceability, immutability, and data encryption as its features, Blockchains can be a solution to some current pain points.
China’s administrative affairs Blockchain applications first appeared in 2017. By 2019, the number of new projects had increased from 2 to 23. Currently, several provinces and cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin have introduced administrative affairs Blockchain applications. Shenzhen was first to launch Blockchain invoices and a central bank Blockchain trading platform. However, in terms of specific numbers, the amount of administrative affairs Blockchain applications in China is still small, and it is dominated by Beijing and the Guangdong Province, the sum of the two exceeding one third of the total number nationwide. At present, the most mature applications are judicial deposit certificate, electronic invoice, and gold trades, but recently, the highly anticipated DCEP was launched.
Launched globally this past month, the BSN is China’s first global infrastructure network, and Zhang from the National Information Center points out that BSN will provide a high-quality and customized technical service platform and a credible, reliable, and scalable infrastructure service provider for China's smart infrastructure and for the development of the digital economy. It has even begun to play an active role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic as it has been deployed in the national center for disease control.
*本文經原作者授權🧗🏿♂️，僅代表作者個人觀點。