活動內容

Topic

Predicting COVID-19 from a Quantitative Finance Perspective

Speaker

Senior Advisor of China ABS Business, MSCI

Founder & CEO, CreditWise Technology Co., Ltd.

Abstract

Dr. Chen Jian has recently used the quantitative model of credit risk analysis for the prediction of COVID-19 outbreaks. This approach is proven to be robust, flexible, and accurate. He has published two medical papers with his medical colleagues on Lancet Preprints. His paper, “Predictive Modeling for Epidemic Outbreaks: A New Approach and COVID-19 Case Study” is forthcoming on Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research. He has been invited to discuss the Asian experiences with Dr. Zhang Wenhong, Dr. David Ho, along with other leading medical experts at the Brookings Institution online forum, to share insights about the predictive model.

Traditional SIR-type models rely heavily on calibrated parameters, which poses serious modelling challenges, regarding model stability, sensitivity, and accuracy. This new approach applies state transition matrix techniques in coronavirus infection and treatment predictions. The key innovation is trifold: 1. It is a flexible model which can predict the intermediate states; 2. It doesn't need too much parameter estimation and is mainly driven by empirical probabilities; 3. It treats all the government preventive measures as embedded in the observed probabilities. Thus, this model greatly improves the predictive power.

Since April 2020, Dr. Chen has given more than 30 presentations about the forecast model to various universities, financial institutions, and regulatory agencies, with an estimated audience more than 10 million via media broadcasting.